In September of 2025, the number of firearm sales, as measured by the National Instant background Check System (NICS), adjusted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) was about two percent higher than it was in September of 2024. This reversed the slightly downward trend in firearm sales started in February of 2025. The reductions have not been enormous, about 2-7 percent for each individual month. Those reductions have been keenly felt in an industry accustomed to significant expansion during the Obama and Biden administrations.
While the numbers used to approximate firearm sales were up about two percent, the number of overall NICS checks was down about ten percent from September of 2024, according to NSSF. From NSSF :
The September 2025 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,179,424 is an increase of 2.0 percent compared to the September 2024 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,156,223.
For comparison, the unadjusted September 2025 FBI NICS figure of 1,858,763 reflects a 10.3% percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,072,550 in September 2024.
Over the last 25 years of Septembers, 2025 is up a bit from 2024, which was up a bit from 2023. All three of those years are down from the peaks of 2020, 2021, and 2022. During the presidential election year of 2020 and the first two years of the Biden administration, the outlook for the Republic of the United States of America appeared grim. The last three Septembers firearm sales are only a little higher than those of the last three years of the Obama administration.
It is likely the shock of the assassination of Charley Kirk reminded potential firearms purchasers of the fragile nature of a stable nation-state. Over the last 235 years, the United States has been the most stable polity in the world. Some people claim the United States politically re-configures itself about every 75 years or so. The double elections of President Donald Trump add credence to the theory. For the present, there are wide differences between most of the United States population and the 25-30% which exist in an alternate reality defined by Wokism, climate alarmism, and critical race/sex/thought theory.
More political violence has the potential to increase firearm sales.
The firearms and ammunition market has absorbed enormous numbers of firearms and amounts of ammunition in the United States over the last 15 years. In 2009, the number of private firearms was 316 million. In 2025, we are well over 533 million, an increase of 217 million. Those numbers cannot be precise, but they are probably close. They are derived from ATF figures of firearms manufactured, imported and exported from the United States. Over 40% of privately owned firearms in the USA are less than 15 years old. Many purchasers have satisfied their desire for more firearms. The NSSF report on excise taxes show ammunition taxes down 31% since 2022, and down about 12% in the last year.
Over the long term, the likely removal of silencers/suppressors and short barreled shotguns and rifles from the National Firearms Act has the potential of increasing demand as purchasers adjust to the new statutory framework. Many firearms owners will opt to purchase new firearms rather than retrofit their existing models. A retreat from the dominant media demonization of firearms ownership of the last 60 years may increase the numbers of potential firearm owners.
If you desire firearms or ammunition, now is a good time to buy.
©2025 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.
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